Since January 2016, DNB publishes the CCyB add-on on a quarterly basis, in accordance with the prevailing rules and regulations. Banks are required to apply the add-on to their exposures to Dutch counterparties. As a rule, CCyB decisions are internationally recognised instruments, which means that non-domestic banks must apply the add-on set by DNB to their Dutch exposures.
At the last decision in June 2020, DNB left the CCyB unchanged at 0 percent. One of the main considerations underlying this decision has been the subdued trend of credit growth. This situation has not fundamentally changed: lending is still showing below-trend growth (Chart 1). This credit gap, as it is known, is internationally considered as one of the key indicators for the CCyB. Besides the credit gap, DNB closely monitors other indicators as well, such as trends in real estate prices and credit growth in subsectors (Table 1).
Based on these developments, DNB has decided to leave the CCyB unchanged at 0%. The recent decision by DNB to reduce the systemic buffers has no impact on this decision. Having said this, DNB intends to build up a CCyB of 2% in the foreseeable future. Additional information can be found here. DNB intends to provide more forward guidance in its next Financial Stability Review.
Chart 1: The credit gap for the Netherlands*
.
.
*Based on statistics ranging from Q1 1960 up to and including Q1 2020.
The credit/GDP-trend has been calculated using a HP-filter. The buffer guide is a mechanical mapping of the credit gap into a buffer add-on. See ESRB (2014), Recommendation on guidance for setting countercyclical buffer rates, ESRB/2014/1, for the calculation.
Source: Statistics Netherlands, DNB
Table 1: Credit conditions indicators
.
Source: Statistics Netherlands, BIS, IPD, DNB. Figures are in %, unless otherwise indicated. Bp = basis points.
1. Difference between (a) the ratio of loans extended to the non-financial private sector to GDP and (b) the long-run trend of this ratio as calculated in ESRB (2014), Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options, Occasional Paper No. 5.
2. The ratio of the mortgage amount to the value of the property at the time the morrtgage is taken out.
3. The ratio of the mortgage amount to the income of the borrower at the time the mortgage is taken out.